Nguồn : Vững Đại Phát
INTERESTING TIME…ITEM 1: Madoff scammed $50 billion from funds, banks and institutional investors..
I don’t understand why the media compared Madoff to Charles Ponzi who made off with $10 million of ordinary investors, widows and orphans (people always add the widows and orphans for dramatic effect). Madoff got 5,000 times the amount instead from the big boys who can surely take a hit. After all, if your bank lost $100 billion to the subprime scam, the $ 1 billion give-away to Madoff would be peanuts. Do you know how much the Soviet Union lost during the 72-year rein of the Communist Party? Historians added up the loss in natural resource depletion and potential economic GDP during the period came up with something like $18 trillion in today dollar value. Well, it’s just money.
ITEM 2: Estimated US government debts would exceed $14 trillion by 2010.
Projected spending by Obama during the next 2 years would add current obligations of the US government by $5 trillion. The total debt load would then equal the nation’s GDP, a historical feat. Gono, the head of Zimbabwe’s Central Bank, just published a book on fiscal policy (no kidding) and he is thinking of migrating to the US to become an economics professor. For the last 3 months alone, he managed to obtain an inflation rate of over 11.2 million per cent for Zimbabwe; and issued the biggest bank note (200 million dollar) to qualify for Guinness Book of Records. If the US doesn’t give him Bernanke’s position, he’s always welcome in Vietnam.
ITEM 3: It would take Vietnam 51 years to catch up with Indonesia’s GDP per capita and 158 years with Singapore’s…
I researched recently and found out that in 1945, Vietnam had about the same GDP per capita as Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea. In 1975, after the 2 wars, Vietnam’s GDP per capita stumbled backward, but still on par with Thailand and slightly higher than Indonesia and China. After 34 years of peaceful development, we are a little behind, aren’t we? BTW, how did these former colonies secure their independence without going to war?
ITEM 4: Moelis & Co., an investment banking firm in Los Angeles, opened its doors in December 2007 (talk about timing). Yet, the firm grew quickly to 150 bankers in such a short time and has opened offices in Chicago, New York and Boston.
I saw once the most beautiful cactus flower blooming under the hot sun of Death Valley desert. It was an inspiring sight. We never know our capability until we test its limit.
ITEM 5: The movie “Burn After Reading” (Brad Pitt, George Clooney) is hilarious and enjoyable. Watching the clash between the greedy morons and the dumb officials, one has to relate to what’s going on between Washington and Wall Street. This is what we can be sure of for 2009: More layoffs, more bankruptcies, more frauds, more spending, more bail-outs, more incompetence, more bad news…day after day…
QUOTE OF THE DAY
I am the walking economy. My hair line is in recession, my stomach is a victim of inflation, my manhood is in constant deflation and my mind is in a state of deep depression.
JOKE OF THE DAY
One investment banker asked his friend, “Say, why did the supervisor fire you?”Replied the second, “Well, you know how a supervisor is always standing around and watching others do the work. My boss got jealous. People started thinking I was the supervisor.”
Việt Nam mất 51 năm mới theo kịp Indonesia
16/12/2008 10:22:43 AM from VN Express
Tính toán mới đây của Ngân hàng Thế giới cho thấy Việt Nam sẽ phải mất hàng chục năm, thậm chí là cả trăm năm mới có thể đuổi kịp các nước láng giềng.
Báo cáo phát triển Việt Nam 2009 của Ngân hàng Thế giới (WB) công bố đầu tháng này đưa ra những thống kê gây sốc cho những ai đang kỳ vọng lớn vào “con hổ Việt Nam”. Theo đó, Việt Nam có thể mất tới 51 năm mới đuổi kịp Indonesia và thậm chí 158 năm nữa mới bằng được Singapore về thu nhập trên đầu người.
Mặc dù đã mào đầu rằng công việc dự báo xu hướng tăng trưởng lâu dài là một nhiệm vụ vô cùng khó khăn ngay cả với các nhà kinh tế giỏi, nhưng WB cũng đưa ra những căn cứ rõ ràng để chứng minh cho phán đoán của mình.
Theo số liệu của WB, năm 2007, thu nhập trên đầu người của Việt Nam là 836 đôla, Indonesia là 1.918, Thái Lan là 3.850 và Singapore là 35.163. Trong giai đoạn 2001-2007, tốc độ tăng trưởng thu nhập trên đầu người (tính theo giá cố định, tức là sau khi đã trừ đi yếu tố lạm phát) tuơng ứng là 6,5%, 4,8%, 4,8% và 4,0% một năm. Với tốc độ này, Việt Nam sẽ cần 51 năm để thu nhập bình quân của người dân theo kịp Indonesia, 95 năm để theo kịp Thái Lan, 158 năm đối với Singapore.
REPLY TO A FRIEND…
From LKS, Singapore:
How many Ponzi schemes are they going to discover in the next 12 months?
Reply from Alan Phan:
I don’t know why the media makes such a big deal out of Madoff. Compared to other Ponzi schemes, his $50-billion swindle was small potato. Let’s agree that the definition of a Ponzi scheme is the mechanics of getting new money from new investors to repay or replace the money of the old investors (which you have already spent or misplaced). The essential element of success is the continuing influx of new investors.
First and foremost is the $2 trillion social security scheme of the US government. Using new contributions to pay off the current obligations is definitely a Ponzi scheme. However, with its power to print money, it’s unlikely that anyone, from the President to Congress, will ever go to jail on this swindle. In similar fashion, the whole government debts are being created using new debts to pay for old debts plus interest. The day of reckoning will come when creditors won’t accept any more greenbacks or Treasury notes.
There is a big difference between Madoff and the government here: while Madoff had to charm and worked his tail off to market his scheme to agreeable clients, the government simply robbed its citizens in broad daylight by passing a law.
Second, all the bubbles, from housing to stocks, were created by the belief that there are always the greater fools who pay a higher price so the early ones can take their money out and run. Investors in Madoff scheme believed that they could get a 12 to 15% return, even in bad years. They were not as naïve as the people who believed that real estate price could go up 10% annually ad infinitum. By investing 10% down, they could realize a 100% return on their money annually, a perfect Ponzi setup.
There will always be some individual Ponzi wannabe who will be exposed in the next 2000 years. However, none will match the world governments and the moronic consumers in terms of size, boldness and obscenity.
From VH, Hanoi, Vietnam:
What did you do on Christmas’ Eve?
I was despondent last night over this financial crisis, so I called the Suicide Help Line.
Got a freaking outsourced call center in Pakistan .I told them I was suicidal.
They got all excited and asked if I could drive a truck.
News on Christmas from Washington
Bad news: There will be no nativity scene in Washington, D.C. this year. Despite extensive searching, residents have not been able to find three wise men and a virgin in the nations capital.
Good news: They have been able to find more than sufficient asses to fill the entire stable, and surrounding towns.
Email from a son to a father: “Heres a quick Christmas list. Since you are on a tight budget, what with this worldwide financial meltdown, so Ive redlined items that can easily be shop-lifted…”
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